Probabili helps retail traders see which prediction markets are genuinely fair — and which are built for them to lose. No jargon, no hype.
Every market gets answered in two layers that never mix:
A plain-language label— the headline. It tells you whether the market is fair game, worth a little caution, or built so you can't win.
A Tradeability number from 0 to 10 — only how cleanly you could get your money in and back out. It is nota buy signal: a market can be easy to trade and still a terrible bet. A high number is never a green light, and a low one doesn't mean you'll lose.
The headline on every market is one of these labels. Click any row to see the full reasoning on its detail page.
A clean market — plenty of people on both sides and prices that aren't stacked against you. If you've got a view, this is a fair place to back it.
The price already reflects what everyone knows. Betting against it means betting you're sharper than the whole room.
How the market settles is left vague. Read the fine print first — the wording can be read against you.
Settles on what someone says or posts — a coin-flip dressed up as news. Fun money only, keep it tiny.
Priced in pennies — lottery-ticket odds, and the gap between buy and sell prices eats a big slice of any stake before the outcome even matters.
A ruling or deal decides this, and whoever sees it first holds the answer. There's no version of this where you come out ahead.
No secret here — you'd just be the weakest player at the table, up against professionals with better data and faster models.
Barely anyone is on the other side. Bet more than a little and you'll push the price against yourself just by showing up.
⚖️ A note on fairness
Probabili does not recommend any market or tell you how to trade. The label is whether a market is worth your bet at all; the Tradeability number is only how cleanly you could get in and out. A market can be easy to trade and still a bad bet — so a high number is never a green light, and a low one doesn't mean you'll lose. Always do your own research.